While a new poll in Afghanistan shows overwhelming support for negotiations with the Taliban, and a majority favouring a coalition government including the Taliban, future British strategy in the country is hard to judge.
Though UK officials have reportedly concluded that the Taliban are “too deep-rooted to be eradicated by military means”, they are still preparing to escalate the war next spring.
Afghans demand talks
In a cross-country poll of 1,578 Afghans, conducted in mid-September but released on 18 October, Canada's biggest polling agency Environics found that 74% supported the idea of negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
54% also supported the idea of a coalition government between the Taliban and Western-backed president Hamid Karzai.
52% agreed that all foreign troops should withdraw within five years (25% preferred one year).
Taliban demands
On 15 October, the Guardian reported: “Senior Taliban commanders in Helmand province” - including a key aide to Taliban leader Mullah Omar - had sent a list of demands to the Afghan government “as part of tentative back-channel talks to bring a peaceful end to the conflict.”
Their demands included “control of 10 southern provinces, a timetable for withdrawal of foreign troops, and the release of all Taliban prisoners within six months.”
Involve the Taliban?
In the face of these Afghan realities, there are indications of a more realistic British approach.
British Defence Secretary Des Browne said at the end of September: “at some stage, the Taliban will need to be involved in the peace process because they are not going away”.
General Richard Dannatt, head of the British army, said at the same time: “the great majority [of militants are] fighting with the Taliban for financial, social and tribal reasons... one day we will need to deal with and reconcile the majority of these people”.
Split the Taliban?
At the same time, the government is reported to be supporting “an ambitious Afghan strategy” to split the Taliban by securing the defection of some of its senior members and their followers.
Crush the Taliban?
Despite all this, in 2008, Britain is to deploy its biggest contingent of paratroopers and special forces since WWII “in a bid to crush the Taliban,” according to the Sunday Times.
The entire Parachute Regiment - 2,000 troops - will be deployed, alongside the Eurofighter/Typhoon, equipped with new missiles for a ground attack role, and, for the first time, UK special forces - whose numbers are set to treble - will focus solely on southern Helmand.
According to a 16 September Sunday Times report, such forces have killed thousands of people in Iraq since the 2003 invasion.
Uncertainties remain about the exact direction of British policy, but Paul Rogers issues a warning.
The professor of peace studies at Bradford University, observes: “Des Browne may talk of negotiations, but the military escalation suggests otherwise.
”It could even be that Afghanistan will begin to match Iraq in 2008 as a focal-point for George W Bush's war on terror.”